นักวิทยาศาสตร์เตือนอาจจะเกิดแผ่นดินไหวรุนแรงแถบชายฝั่งสุมาตราซ้ำสอง

นักวิชาการไอร์แลนด์ชี้อาจเกิดแผ่นดินไหวรุนแรงแถบชายฝั่งสุมาตราซ้ำสอง

โดย ผู้จัดการออนไลน์ 20 มีนาคม 2548 16:34 น.

เอเอฟพี - นักวิทยาแผ่นดินไหวเตือน มีความเสี่ยงเพิ่มขึ้นมากที่จะเกิดแผ่นดินไหวขนาดรุนแรงในไม่ช้านี้ ณ บริเวณชายฝั่งตะวันตกของเกาะสุมาตรา โดยเป็นผลสืบเนื่องมาจากธรณีพิโรธครั้งร้ายแรงยิ่ง ซึ่งก่อให้เกิดคลื่นยักษ์สึนามิถล่มชายฝั่งมหาสมุทรอินเดีย เมื่อวันที่ 26 ธันวาคมปีที่แล้ว

รายงานการศึกษาของนักวิทยาแผ่นดินไหวคณะนี้ ซึ่งได้รับการตีพิมพ์ใน

 

อันนี้เป็นข่าวของหนังสือพิมพ์ The Guardian,London ตีพิมพ์เมื่อวันที่ 17 มีนาคม

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New tsunami fear as scientists find dangerous stresses on ocean floor

Second major earthquake could strike Indian Ocean within a year

Graphic: the picture under the sea

<b>David Adam, science correspondent
Thursday March 17, 2005
The Guardian </b>

Scientists analysing the aftermath of the Boxing Day earthquake under the Indian Ocean warned today that another devastating quake is now far more likely to strike the region.
The seismic slip off the coast of Sumatra that triggered the tsunami has piled dangerous levels of stress on to two vulnerable parts of the fault zone, significantly raising the chances of a magnitude 7.5 earthquake. The scientists cannot accurately predict how soon such an earthquake may occur, but they point out that previous examples of so-called "coupled" earthquakes have struck within a year of each other.

John McCloskey of the University of Ulster in Coleraine, who led the research, said: "Many of us are brought up to understand hazard as whenever you've had your bit of bad luck it doesn't happen again. Lightning never strikes twice. But one great indicator that you're going to have an earthquake is that you've just had one."
He added: "These are very significant and extensive increases in stress. We cannot say for certain it will result in an earthquake but it's the biggest stress increase over a large area that we've measured since we started doing this research."

A powerful undersea earthquake rocked parts of the region yesterday but there were no reports of damage or casualties. The quake, which registered 6 on the Richter scale, struck about 19 miles beneath the seabed off Aceh province in Indonesia but did not cause a tsunami.

The new study shows one of the regions at increased risk of a more powerful event is a 31-mile stretch of the undersea Sunda trench, next to the 745-mile long zone that ruptured on Boxing Day.

Earthquakes in the Sunda trench triggered fatal tsunamis in 1833 and 1861.

Not all big undersea earthquakes cause tsunamis but the scientists say their results emphasise the urgent need for a warning system in the Indian Ocean.

Countries in the region and UN experts agreed plans for a system last week at a meeting in Paris, but it will not be completed until the end of next year. Until the network of tidal gauges and seabed sensors is in place, Japan and the US will issue alerts on seismic activity in the Indian Ocean.

The second area of concern identified in the new research is a 185-mile region of fault running directly beneath the island of Sumatra, close to the city of Banda Aceh, which was devastated in December and where rebuilding work is under way.

The scientists estimate that stress in the Sunda trench region has increased by up to 5 bars; in the Sumatra fault it has been forced up by as much as 9 bars.

<b>Precedent</b>


Prof McCloskey said there was a worrying recent precedent to consider: in 1998 the seismologist Suleyman Nalbant, one of the authors of the new study, used the same technique to show that local seismic activity had increased stress by 2 bars on a 31-mile stretch of the Anatolian fault in Turkey, which has a very similar structure to the Sumatra fault.

Less than 18 months later, the Turkish fault gave way near the city of Izmit and triggered a magnitude 7.4 earthquake that killed 20,000 people.

He also warned that earthquakes in subduction zones - where one continental plate passes underneath another, as happens at the Indian Ocean boundary - frequently struck in pairs.

In the Nankai trough to the south-east of Japan, five of the seven large earthquakes over the last 1,500 years have been followed by a similar event within five years. Three occurred within 12 months.

Prof McCloskey said: "It's by studying and reanalysing what happened in the past that we are able to have some confidence in the relationship between the stresses we're measuring and the occurrence of other earthquakes.

"But it should be stressed that the mapping is not one to one. It does not mean there will be another earthquake within a year or two, but certainly the risk has increased significantly as a result of what happened in December."

His team used computer simulations of the Boxing Day earthquake prepared by an American team at Caltech in Pasadena to recreate movement of the surrounding area.

Because some regions of the affected fault slipped further than others, the resulting redistribution of stress through the ground was patchy and uneven - meaning seismologists could not be sure at first whether the risk of a second quake was raised or lowered.

To find out, Prof McCloskey's group used mathematical models of elastic materials, which essentially view the Earth as a giant rubber ball. For several points along the faults in the two danger zones they worked out whether the movement of the surrounding rocks freed the two surfaces to slide past each other or clamped them together, making an earthquake more or less likely. The results appear in the journal Nature.

Peter Styles, the president of the Geological Society, said: "It has become apparent over the last 10 years that when a major earthquake occurs it changes the stress in adjacent areas. Sometimes this can serve to lock the fault, but sometimes it can make another failure more likely. Every effort should be made to ensure that appropriate monitoring technologies and communication protocols are put in place to monitor the Indian Ocean."

Nick Ambraseys, a seismologist at Imperial College London, said: "There is nothing in [the new study] that enables, with any degree of certainty, the prediction of the immediacy of the next earthquake - except that an earthquake such as those of 1833 and 1861 is likely to occur sometime in the future. False alarms and inaccurate timing could create more problems than already exist."

In separate research, marine scientists in the US have highlighted the risk of a tsunami in the Caribbean, where there is no warning system.

The team from the University of North Carolina and the University of Texas say more than 35 million people could be affected if a powerful earthquake struck along the boundary between the North American and Caribbean tectonic plates. At least 10 significant tsunamis have been recorded in the region since 1492, six of which are known to have caused loss of life.


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http://www.guardian.co.uk/tsunami/story/0,15671,1439451,00.html

 

น่ากลัว มาก สำหรับ ภัยธรรมชาตินี้

เตือนกันเอาไว้ก่อน

ฟังหูไว้หู ไม่เสียหายนี่นะ
ขอบคุณค่ะ สำหรับข่าวสาร ที่ดีดี

 

มีโอกาส ครับ .... รู้สึกว่าผมอ่านเจอที่ไหนสักแห่ง ประมาณวันเสาร์-อาทิตย์ ที่ผ่านมาว่าอาจจะเกิดเหตุซ้ำสอง ..... น่ากลัวจริงๆ

ขออย่าให้เกิดเหตุการณ์เช่นนั้นเลยครับ !!!
แค่นี้เราก็เจ็บมากแล้ว......................

 

-อย่าพึ่งเกิดเลยให้ได้พักหายใจกันบ้าง

 

สภาวะของโลกตอนนี้ ไม่มีอะไรน่าไว้ใจเลยค่ะ แม้แต่ภัยพิบัติ
ที่อาจเกิดจากน้ำมือมนุษย์ ด้วยกันก็น่ากลัวไม่น้อย

สิ่งที่ทุกคนทำด้วยตนเองได้ดีที่สุดคือ หมั่นทำดี คิดดี และปฏิบัติดี
ทั้งกาย วาจา ใจ และตั้งมั่นในสติ ไม่ตื่นตระหนกกับข่าวมากเกินไป

อย่าลืมช่วยกันรักษาศีล ภาวนาให้ประเทศไทยรอดพ้นภัยพิบัติทั้งปวง
และปกปักรักษาชาวพุทธทุกผู้ทุกนาม ให้คลาดแคล้วอุบัติภัยด้วยเทอญ

 

สงสาร .. .. ขออย่าให้เป็นอย่างนั้นเลย ..

 

ขอท้าผู้ที่แน่จริง

นักวิทยาศาสตร์เขาได้ทำนายแล้วว่ามีโอกาศเกิดแผ่นดินไหว
ขอเชิญและท้าทายนักวิทยาศาสตร์ทางจิตทุกท่านเฃิญทำนายวันและเวลาที่จะเกิด เอาแบบที่แน่นอนนะ ว่าจะเกิดเมื่อไหร่ เวลาได วินาทีที่เท่าไหร่
ขอให้มันแน่เถอะน่ะ

 

-หงะ....นั่งเล่นเน็ตอยู่ดีๆข่าวออกตะกี้เองครับ สุมาตราไหว
อีกแล้วประมาณ 5 ริค ครับ แต่ไม่เกิดซูนามิ..อะ

 

เกิดแล้วจ๊า ไม่น่าเชื่อเลย 8.7 จ๊า โชคดีที่ไม่มีผลกระทบกับประเทศไทยเท่าไรนักนะ

 

แม่นจริงๆ

 

แม่นเจรงๆ
ลูกใครเนี่ยเก่งจังเลย (b-smile)

 

นับถอยหลังโรคระบาดไข้หวัดนกจาก คนสู่คน... น่ากลัวกว่าแผ่นดินไหวหลายเท่า

ยืนยันแน่ชัดแล้วว่าสามารถติดจากคนสู่คนได้

Vietnam Family of Five Confirmed With Bird Flu
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VIETNAM: March 30, 2005


HANOI - A Vietnamese couple and their three children have been infected by Asia's bird flu in the latest human cases of the deadly virus which has killed 49 people since the end of 2003, state media reported on Tuesday.


The five, from a district where bird flu had killed poultry, were sent to hospital in the northern port of Haiphong last week suffering fevers and breathing problems.

Preliminary tests on the 39-year-old man, his wife and their three daughters -- aged between four months and 10 years -- confirmed they had the deadly H5N1 variant of the virus, the Lao Dong newspaper reported.

Doctors and officials could not be reached for comment, but the newspaper said the family had eaten sick chickens after more than half of their 400 birds died earlier this month.

Bird flu swept across the region in early 2003 has killed 35 people in Vietnam, 13 of them since late December when the disease broke out anew in the southern Mekong Delta. It has spread to more than one third of Vietnam's 64 provinces.

The virus, which has also claimed 12 Thais and two Cambodians, has killed about 70 percent of the people known to have been infected, but it does not pass easily from bird to humans and eating infected fowl cooked properly is not dangerous.

Experts fear that if the virus could mutate into a more contagious form and jump between humans, it could unlash a global pandemic of killer flu and that millions could die.


REUTERS NEWS SERVICE