อุกาบาต 2012-DA14 จะเฉียดโลกวันที่ 15 กพ. 2013 ห่างโลกแค่ 17,000 ไมล์ & update 5 กพ.ฝนอุกาบาตถล่มรัสเซีย

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ขอเดาเอาอะไรบางอย่างนะ คือ เป็นไปได้ไหม ที่นาซ่าจะทราบว่า วันที่ 14 กุมภาพันธ์ จะมีอะไรบางอย่างมาใกล้โลกเรามาก แต่จะบอกตรงๆ ก็กลัวแตกตื่น เลยเอา something มาเตือนให้พวกเราระวัง

เพราะเท่าที่ตามข้อมูลมา 14 กุมภา 2013 มีหลายๆ แหล่งข้อมูล มีข้อมูลตรงกันว่าจะเกิดการเปลี่ยนแปลง ก็คอยดูกันต่อไป

ก็ลองๆ ช่วยสังเกตการณ์กันไป

 

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ขอบคุณมากจ้า (f)

 

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Published on 11 Nov 2012

Planetary scientist Daniel Durda talked about Near Earth asteroids, and the possibility of a mid-sized one, 2012 DA14, hitting us in 2013. The 150 ft. wide object (much smaller than Apophis) won't collide with Earth when it makes a close approach on Feb. 15th, 2013, he said, but its subsequent pass in 2020 could be of concern. We don't have enough information yet about what its orbit will look like at that time, he noted. A lot of recent asteroid & comet discoveries are being made by amateur astronomers, who ironically sometimes have better equipment and more time than the professionals, he commented.

Another asteroid of concern is 2011 AG5. About the size of a football stadium, it could cause a crater in the ground if it impacted Earth. It's going to make a near approach in February of 2023, and if it passes through in a certain way (a 1 in 625 chance), it could hit us on a return passage in 2040, he warned. Durda also talked about some of the unusual properties of Jupiter's moons, Europa and Io, as well as how we're living in the "glory age" of exoplanet discoveries, learning that our solar system is not unique, and we're not alone out there in the galaxy.

Biography:

Daniel Durda is a planetary scientist with the Southwest Research Institute. He has authored 68 scientific publications on the subject of the collisional and dynamical evolution of main-belt and near-Earth asteroids, Kuiper belt comets, and interplanetary dust; airborne observations of planetary occultations; the formation and observational detection of asteroidal satellites; the size distribution of dust from the catastrophic disruption of meteoritic samples; and the global distribution of ejecta from the Chicxulub impact crater.

Wikipedia
Asteroids (from Greek ἀστεροειδής - asteroeidēs, "star-like", from ἀστήρ "star" and εἶδος "like, in form") are a class of small Solar System bodies in orbit around the Sun. They have also been called planetoids, especially the larger ones. These terms have historically been applied to any astronomical object orbiting the Sun that did not show the disk of a planet and was not observed to have the characteristics of an active comet, but as small objects in the outer Solar System were discovered, their volatile-based surfaces were found to more closely resemble comets, and so were often distinguished from traditional asteroids. Thus the term asteroid has come increasingly to refer specifically to the small bodies of the inner Solar System out to the orbit of Jupiter, which are usually rocky or metallic. They are grouped with the outer bodies—centaurs, Neptune trojans, and trans-Neptunian objects—as minor planets, which is the term preferred in astronomical circles. This article will restrict the use of the term 'asteroid' to the minor planets of the inner Solar System.

There are millions of asteroids, many thought to be the shattered remnants of planetesimals, bodies within the young Sun's solar nebula that never grew large enough to become planets. A large majority of known asteroids orbit in the asteroid belt between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter or co-orbital with Jupiter (the Jupiter Trojans). However, other orbital families exist with significant populations, including the near-Earth asteroids. Individual asteroids are classified by their characteristic spectra, with the majority falling into three main groups: C-type, S-type, and M-type. These were named after and are generally identified with carbon-rich, stony, and metallic compositions, respectively.

A near-Earth object (NEO) is a Solar System object whose orbit brings it into close proximity with the Earth. All NEOs have a closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) of less than 1.3 AU. They include a few thousand near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), near-Earth comets, a number of solar-orbiting spacecraft, and meteoroids large enough to be tracked in space before striking the Earth. It is now widely accepted that collisions in the past have had a significant role in shaping the geological and biological history of the planet. NEOs have become of increased interest since the 1980s because of increased awareness of the potential danger some of the asteroids or comets pose to the Earth, and active mitigations are being researched.

 

Record Setting Asteroid Flyby


Jan. 28, 2013: Talk about a close shave. On Feb. 15th an asteroid about half the size of a football field will fly past Earth only 17,200 miles above our planet's surface. There's no danger of a collision, but the space rock, designated 2012 DA14, has NASA's attention.

"This is a record-setting close approach," says Don Yeomans of NASA's Near Earth Object Program at JPL. "Since regular sky surveys began in the 1990s, we've never seen an object this big get so close to Earth."

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwidzVHvbGI]ScienceCast: Record-Setting Asteroid Flyby - YouTube[/ame]

Earth's neighborhood is littered with asteroids of all shapes and sizes, ranging from fragments smaller than beach balls to mountainous rocks many kilometers wide. Many of these objects hail from the asteroid belt, while others may be corpses of long-dead, burnt out comets. NASA's Near-Earth Object Program helps find and keep track of them, especially the ones that come close to our planet.

2012 DA14 is a fairly typical near-Earth asteroid. It measures some 50 meters wide, neither very large nor very small, and is probably made of stone, as opposed to metal or ice. Yeomans estimates that an asteroid like 2012 DA14 flies past Earth, on average, every 40 years, yet actually strikes our planet only every 1200 years or so.

The impact of a 50-meter asteroid is not cataclysmic--unless you happen to be underneath it. Yeomans points out that a similar-sized object formed the mile wide Meteor Crater in Arizona when it struck about 50,000 years ago. "That asteroid was made of iron," he says, "which made it an especially potent impactor." Also, in 1908, something about the size of 2012 DA14 exploded in the atmosphere above Siberia, leveling hundreds of square miles of forest. Researchers are still studying the "Tunguska Event" for clues to the impacting object.

"2012 DA14 will definitely not hit Earth," emphasizes Yeomans. "The orbit of the asteroid is known well enough to rule out an impact."
2012 DA (flyby, 200px)
A schematic diagram of the Feb 15th flyby. More

Even so, it will come interestingly close. NASA radars will be monitoring the space rock as it approaches Earth closer than many man-made satellites. Yeomans says the asteroid will thread the gap between low-Earth orbit, where the ISS and many Earth observation satellites are located, and the higher belt of geosynchronous satellites, which provide weather data and telecommunications.

"The odds of an impact with a satellite are extremely remote," he says. Almost nothing orbits where DA14 will pass the Earth.

NASA's Goldstone radar in the Mojave Desert is scheduled to ping 2012 DA14 almost every day from Feb. 16th through 20th. The echoes will not only pinpoint the orbit of the asteroid, allowing researchers to better predict future encounters, but also reveal physical characteristics such as size, spin, and reflectivity. A key outcome of the observing campaign will be a 3D radar map showing the space rock from all sides.

During the hours around closest approach, the asteroid will brighten until it resembles a star of 8th magnitude. Theoretically, that’s an easy target for backyard telescopes. The problem, points out Yeomans, is speed. “The asteroid will be racing across the sky, moving almost a full degree (or twice the width of a full Moon) every minute. That’s going to be hard to track.” Only the most experienced amateur astronomers are likely to succeed.

Those who do might experience a tiny chill when they look at their images. That really was a close shave.

For more information about 2012 DA and other asteroids of interest, visit NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program web site: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov


Author: Dr. Tony Phillips |Production editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA


อุกาบาตที่จะมาใกล้โลกวันที่ 15 กุมภาพันธ์นี้ ขนาดประมาณครึ่งสนามฟุตบอลและจะผ่านโลกประมาณ 17,200 ไมล์จากพื้นดิน มันจะไม่มีอันตรายที่จะชนโลกจากการสำรวจของนาซ่า และได้ชื่อว่า 2012 DA14

2012 Da14 มันเป็นอุกาบาตที่วิ่งมาเฉียดโลกใกล้มาก และวัดขนาดความกว้างได้ 50 เมตร และมันก็ไม่ได้ใหญ่ หรือ ไม่ได้เล็กมาก และมันก็ประมาณว่ามีแต่ก้อนหินซึ่งต่างจากโลหะหรือน้ำแข็ง Yeomans กล่าวว่า อุกาบาตแบบตัวนี้ จะผ่านโลกเฉลี่ย ทุกๆ 40 ปี และจะชนโลกจริงๆ แค่ทุก 1200 ปี

การที่อุกาบาตขนาดกว้าง 50 เมตรมันไม่ได้ทำให้เกิดความเสียหายขั้นรุนแรง แต่ถ้ามันตกใส่คุณหล่ะก็ไม่แน่ Yeomans กล่าวว่ามันมีกรณีใกล้ๆ กัน คือ อุกาบาตขนาดใกล้เคียงกัน ที่พุ่งชนโลกเมื่อ 50,000 ปีก่อน อุกาบาตอันนั้นประกอบด้วยธาตุเหล็ก อันนั้นมันมีศักยภาพในการทำลายได้ หรือกรณีในปี 1908 บางอย่างที่ขนาดเท่ากับ 2012 DA14 นี้ที่เข้ามายังโลกตกลงแถวไซบีเรีย และทำให้เกิดหลุมขนาดใหญ่ หลายลูกบาตรเมตร นักวิจัยยังคงศึกษา Tungusak Event ในการหาเหตุของการทำลายล้าง

Yeomans กล่าวอีกว่า อุกาบาตนี้จะไม่ชนโลก เพราะวงโคจรของมันเราทราบได้ดี สามารถคาดการณ์ความเสียหายได้

และยังกล่าวอีกว่า เจ้าอุกาบาตตัวนี้ มันอยู่ระหว่างวงโคจรดาวเทียมระดับต่ำ และดาวเทียมระดับสูง อย่างพวกดาวเทียมตรวจอากาศหรือทางการสื่อสาร

และในวันดังกล่าวเราสามารถมองเห็นได้ด้วยกล้องดูดาวหลังบ้าน เพราะมันมีความสว่างประมาณ 8th magnitude แต่คาดว่าพวกนักดูดาวสมัครเล่นน่าจะมีโอกาสได้ดูมากกว่าคนทั่วๆ ไป

 

February 08, 2013
UPDATE:NASA Tries to Calm Fears of Near Miss Asteroid

นาซ่าพยามจะลดความกลัวของอุกาบาตที่จะวิ่งผ่านโลก 15 กุมภาพันธ์นี้



by Mitch Battros - Earth Changes Media

NASA held a media teleconference yesterday (Thursday) Feb. 7th, to discuss asteroid 2012 DA14 which will have a very close flyby of Earth on Feb. 15, 2013. Also discussed are NASA's efforts to find potentially hazardous near-Earth objects.



I would suggest NASA is a bit more nervous than they project. I believe I counted between 11 and 15 disclaimers during their conference. They also produced three videos - also with punctuated disclaimers. I'm not saying they are hiding information, I'm just saying there's probably a few beads of sweat on those monitoring.


Below is a portion of a question and answer session:

Q: What is asteroid DA14

A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is a small near-Earth object - approximately 150 feet (45 meters) in diameter. On Feb. 15, 2013, the asteroid will pass by our planet at a remarkably close distance, but the asteroid's path is understood well enough that there is no chance of a collision with the Earth.


Q: What date and what time will the asteroid be closest to Earth?

A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 will be closest to Earth on Feb. 15 at approximately 19:24 UTC (2:24 p.m. EST/11:24 a.m. PST). This time may change by a minute or two as the asteroid is tracked on its approach and predictions are refined.

At the time of closest approach, the asteroid will be over the eastern Indian Ocean, off Sumatra -- approx. latitude: -6 deg South. / longitude: 97.5 deg East.


Q: How far away will asteroid 2012 DA14 be at time of closest approach?

A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 will be only about 17,200 miles (27,700 kilometers) above Earth's surface at the time of closest approach on Feb 15, 2013. This distance is well outside Earth's atmosphere, but it is inside the belt of satellites in geostationary orbit, which is located 22,200 miles (35,800 kilometers) above Earth's surface. The close-approach distance is only about one-tenth the distance between Earth and moon. Another way to express the distance between asteroid and Earth at time of closest approach is 4.4 Earth radii from Earth's surface - or about twice the diameter of the Earth.

Click On Graphic For - VIDEO



Q: Could asteroid DA14 impact Earth?

A: No. The orbit of asteroid 2012 DA14 is well understood - it will not come any closer than 17,150 miles (27,650 kilometers) above Earth's surface during its flyby on Feb 15, 2013.

The asteroid's orbit around the sun is roughly similar to that of Earth, and it makes relatively close approaches to our planet's orbit twice per orbit. But, the 2013 flyby is by far the closest the asteroid will approach our planet for many decades. The next notable close approach to Earth will be on February 16, 2046, when the asteroid will pass no closer than 620,000 miles (1,000,000,000 kilometers) from the center-point of Earth.



Q: What makes 2012 DA14 special?

A: The flyby of asteroid 2012 DA14 is the closest ever predicted Earth approach for an object this large.



Q: How long will asteroid 2012 DA14 be within the Earth/moon system?

A: Asteroid 2012 DA14's will be within the Earth/moon system for about 33 hours. Its orbit will bring it within the Earth/moon system (approach within one lunar distance, 237,000 miles of the Earth) on Feb. 15 at about 0300 UTC (7 p.m. PST on Thursday, Feb. 14). The asteroid will exit the Earth/moon system on Feb. 16 at about 1200 UTC (4 a.m. PST).

Click On Graphic For - VIDEO




Q: Is there a chance that asteroid 2012 DA14 could be eclipsed by Earth?

A: Because of its trajectory, there is no chance that asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass through Earth's shadow.



Q: How big is asteroid 2012 DA14?

A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is currently estimated to be about 150 feet (45 meters) across and has an estimated mass of about 130,000 metric tons. If radar observations of this asteroid are successful, we might have a more accurate estimate of the asteroid's size after its close approach.



Q: How fast will the asteroid be traveling at closest approach?

A: Asteroid 2012 DA 14 is traveling at about 17,450 miles per hour (28,100 kilometers per hour), or 4.8 miles per second (7.82 kilometers per second) relative to Earth.



Q: Who discovered asteroid DA14?

A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 was discovered by the La Sagra Sky Survey operated by the Astronomical Observatory of Mallorca in Spain on Feb. 23, 2012. The asteroid was about 2.7 million miles (4.3 million kilometers) distant when it was detected. Their observations were reported to the NASA funded Minor Planet Center, operated by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory for the International Astronomical Union, where all observations from observatories worldwide are combined to maintain the database on all known asteroids and comets in our solar system.



Q: How many asteroids are out there similar in size to asteroid DA14?

A: Scientists believe there are approximately 500,000 near-Earth asteroids the size of 2012 DA14. Of those, less than one percent have been discovered.



Q: How many times do asteroids the size of DA14 fly this close?

A: Scientists at NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office in Pasadena, Calif. estimate that an asteroid the size of 2012 DA14 flies this close every 40 years on average and that one will impact Earth, on average, about once in every 1,200 years.



Q: Is there a chance that asteroid DA14 will collide with one or more satellites?

A: There is very little chance that asteroid 2012 DA14 will impact a satellite or spacecraft. Because the asteroid is approaching from below Earth, it will pass between the outer constellation of satellites located in geosynchronous orbit (22,245 miles/35,800 kilometers) and the large concentration of satellites orbiting much closer to Earth. (The International Space Station, for example, orbits at the close-in altitude of 240 miles/386 kilometers.). There are almost no satellites orbiting at the distance at which the asteroid will pass.



Q: What will asteroid DA14's close pass do to Earth's rotation/tides/fault lines/etc.

A: The gravitational influence upon Earth and its inhabitants by the flyby of asteroid 2012 DA14 will be infinitesimally small.

Click On Graphic For - VIDEO




Q: What would happen if DA14 were to impact Earth?

A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 will not impact Earth, but if another asteroid of a size similar to that of 2012 DA14 (about 150 feet across) were to impact Earth, it would release approximately 2.5 megatons of energy in the atmosphere and would be expected to cause regional devastation.

A comparison to the impact potential of an asteroid the size of 2012 DA14 could be made to the impact of a near-Earth object that occurred in 1908 in Tuguska, Siberia. Known in the asteroid community as the "Tunguska Event," this impact of an asteroid just slightly smaller than 2012 DA14 (approximately 100 - 130 feet/30-40 meters across) is believed to have flattened about 750 square miles (1,200 square kilometers) of forest in and around the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in what is now Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia.



Q: Can I see the asteroid during its close approach?

A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is small, so even though it will make a close flyby of Earth, the asteroid's apparent magnitude is expected to peak at about only 7.4 - too dim to be viewed by the naked eye. To view the asteroid, you will need a good pair of binoculars, or even better, a moderately powered telescope.

During the closest approach, and dependent on local weather, the asteroid will be visible from parts of Europe, Africa and Asia. The asteroid will appear to be moving relatively quickly as it crosses the sky from the south to the north.



Q: What is NASA doing about asteroid 2012 DA14?

A: As there is no chance of impact, there is nothing that needs to be done about the asteroid. However, the flyby of 2012 DA14 is a great opportunity for science. NASA's Goldstone Solar System Radar, located in California's Mojave Desert, will observe the asteroid on Feb. 16, 18, 19 and 20. Due to the asteroid's small size, the radar images generated are expected to be no more than a few pixels across. It will also be observed by numerous optical observatories worldwide to attempt to determine its spin rate and composition.



Q: What is NASA doing about Near-Earth Objects?

A: NASA has several ongoing programs regarding asteroid discovery and science.

The NASA Near Earth Object Observation (NEOO) Program detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground- and space-based telescopes. The network of projects supported by this program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them and plots their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.

All observations from observatories worldwide are sent to the NASA funded Minor Planet Center, operated by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory for the International Astronomical Union, where they are combined to maintain the database on all known asteroids and comets in our solar system. The Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL manages the technical and scientific activities for NASA's Near-Earth Object Program of the Science Mission Directorate in Washington.

JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. The NEO Program Office performs more precise orbit determination on the objects, and predicts whether any will become an impact hazard to the Earth, or any other planet in the solar system. The NEOO Program also performs orbit analysis on the discovered Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) at Goddard Space Flight Center to determine which ones may become good robotic or human spaceflight destinations in the near future.



NASA's 70-meter (230-foot) Goldstone antenna, located about 35 miles north of Barstow on the Ft. Irwin Military Base, is part of NASA's Deep Space network. The antenna is one of only two facilities capable of imaging asteroids with radar. The other is the National Science Foundation's 1,000-foot-diameter (305 meters) Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico.

The capabilities of the two instruments are complementary, and NASA's NEOO Program supports the radar capability at both these facilities. The Arecibo radar is about 20 times more sensitive, can see about one-third of the sky, and can detect asteroids about twice as far away. Goldstone is fully steerable, can see about 80 percent of the sky, can track objects several times longer per day, and can image asteroids at finer spatial resolution. JPL manages the Goldstone Solar System Radar and the Deep Space Network for NASA.

NASA has also started several basic research and technology demonstration projects to better understand the nature of asteroids and how they might best be deflected from an Earth impacting trajectory, or to develop the space technology required to do this.

This development work includes improved Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) systems that could push or pull an asteroid for an extended time, and close proximity operations and grappling mechanisms to work in and around asteroids and manipulate their surfaces. This technology will also be useful for future robotic and human missions to these objects, and even potentially resource mining operations.



นาซ่าได้จัดประชุมทางโทรศัพท์เมื่อวานนี้ (พฤหัสที่ 7 กุมภาพันธ์) ประชุมกันเรื่องอุกาบาต 2012 DA14 ซึ่งจะโคจรผ่านโลกมากในวันที่ 15 กุมภาพันธ์ 2013 นี้ และก็ปรึกษากันเรื่องนาซ่าจะมีความสามารถในการหาศักยภาพในการทำลายล้างของวัตถุที่เข้ามาใกล้โลกด้วย

ผมคิดว่า นาซ่าเหมือนกับจะมีอาการตื่นกลัวนิดหน่อยมากกว่าที่พวกเค้าคาดไว้

คำถาม: อะไรคืออุกาบาต DA14

เดี๋ยวมาแปลต่อ น่าสนใจมากๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆ
มันมีน้ำหนัก แสนกว่า ตัน แล้ววงโคจรต่ำประมาณวงโคจรดาวเทียม

และที่สำคัญมันจะมาใกล้ที่สุดตรง มหาสมุทรอินเดีย และแถวสุมาตรา




ในเวลาที่เจ้าอุกาบาตนี้มาถึงโลกใกล้ที่สุด มันจะไปอยู่ตรงมหาสมุทรอินเดียตะวันออก ตรงเกาะสุมาตรา ประมาณ แลตติจูดที่ 6 องศาใต้ และ ลองติจูด 97.5 องศาตะวันออก และมันจะมาใกล้โลกมากที่สุดเมื่อวันที่ 15 กุมภาพันธ์ เวลา 19.24 UTC (วันเสาร์ที่ 16 กุมภาพันธ์ เวลา ตีสองครึ่ง เวลาไทย)

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGj_CIYABqE]Coast To Coast AM - 01-29-2013 - 2013 in Numerology/ Energy Issues - C2CAM - YouTube[/ame]

 

ฮ่าๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆ ขอหัวเราะหน่อย....